When you could be sure that the submarine is yellow, it’ll frequentistly appear red, blue, or green

In yesterday’s post, I showed that conventional frequentist confidence intervals are far from straightforward and often do not permit the inference one wants to make. Typically, we would like to use confidence intervals to infer something about a population parameter: if we have a 95% confidence interval, we would like to conclude that there is a […]

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The 95% Stepford Interval: Confidently not what it appears to be

What could be more straightforward than the confidence interval? I compute the mean shoe size of a random sample of first-graders and surround it by whiskers that are roughly twice the standard error of that mean. Presumably I can now have 95% confidence that the “true” value of first-graders’ shoe size, in the population at […]

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#Psynom15: The next generation

The annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society in Chicago drew to a close on Sunday. Our Twitter feed provides a record of the meeting with the hashtag #Psynom15. As always, the meeting included a number of poster sessions, and on the Saturday evening Cassie Jacobs and I approached a number of student authors at their posters at random (technically […]

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When eyes lock onto venomous cucumbers: Attentional dwelling on threat-related stimuli

Traces of our evolutionary history linger within us and can be detected in many circumstances. For example, some time ago we noted on this website that processing information with respect to its survival value—that is, whether a knife or a sofa might be of greater use when you are stranded on an island—provides you with a memorial […]

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Gorillas defying the mist: Semantic impairments in people with Alzheimer’s disease

We have no difficulty picking “rat” as the odd one out from the set “goat – deer – rat”. This ready access to semantic structure in our memories supports many essential cognitive capabilities. It allows us to be guided in our current understanding and behavior by prior knowledge and experience. For example, if we learned […]

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Your car tells you what to see: Driving affects distance judgments

One of the most important functions of perception is to help organisms navigate through their environments. Different animals navigate through very different environments: think of birds flying at thousands of feet above the ground, bats catching moths in pitch darkness mid-flight, whales crossing entire oceans, bees finding nectar-rich flowers, monkeys scampering through dense tree foliage. […]

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Eeny, meeny, miny, mice: counting and numeric meta skills in animals

All aspects of animal behaviour are the result of a choice. By choosing to do one thing an animal is therefore not doing something else. These decisions need to be made in a manner that maximizes the likelihood of survival. Because of this emphasis on survival, decisions are generally studied from an ecological perspective; however, […]

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Evolving beyond our antcestors: Explaining human spatial navigation

Human beings are not perfect and our cognitive flaws are legendary—for example, we are not aware of how dangerous our distracted driving is and tend to think that it is others who are bad drivers. People can, however, hold an immense amount of information in mind and use this to navigate space more efficiently and accurately than […]

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The dark side of easy questions: Early confidence can sway jurors

“During the summer of 1979, Bernard Pagano, a Catholic priest, was arrested and put on trial in Delaware for a series of armed robberies. Seven eyewitnesses, ranging from clerks to bystanders, positively identified Father Pagano as the “gentleman bandit,” whose well-tailored appearance and courteous manners always belied his felonious purpose. As the trial was nearing […]

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